Everything below is counted from these 4 demos. Nothing is estimated, predicted, or compared against teams outside this list.
| Date | Map | Event | Versus | Demo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | de_mirage | NECC wk1 | Lakeshore College | 1-ex-aaaa |
| 2026-09-16 | de_inferno | NECC wk2 | Ashford University | 1-ex-bbbb |
| 2026-09-16 | de_mirage | NECC wk2 | Ashford University | 1-ex-cccc |
| 2026-09-23 | de_anubis | NECC wk3 | Pinebluff State | 1-ex-dddd |
Match record, then round record. Round record is the more honest of the two — a 16–14 loss and a 16–2 loss are the same line in a match record.
| Map | Matches won | Rounds won | As T | As CT | Picked / banned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| de_mirage | 2 / 2 | 63%32 / 51 | 56%14 / 25 | 69%18 / 26 | 2 / 0 |
| de_inferno | 0 / 1 | 41%11 / 27 | 31%4 / 13 | 50%7 / 14 | 0 / 1 |
| de_anubis | 0 / 1 | 39%7 / 18 | 56%5 / 9 | 22%2 / 9 | 0 / 2 |
Counted, not inferred. Each line is a thing that happened in a stated number of rounds out of a stated number of chances, with the round numbers so you can open the demo and watch it.
Mid smoke lands between 1:38 and 1:33 every time, then four players commit through palace and ramp. Nobody stays mid to trade.
rounds 3, 5, 8, 9, 12, 14, 17, 19, 22, 24, 27Two AWPs hold A together from palace and CT. Leaves B to a lone rifle plus the rotator.
rounds 4, 6, 10, 13, 16, 18, 21, 23, 26Every full-buy round on this map went A or mid-to-A. You only hit B on force buys.
Three players to banana in the first 20 seconds regardless of buy. You enter A apartments only after banana is lost or won.
rounds 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16, 19, 21Molotov plus a two-player push into banana within the first 15 seconds. Costly when it fails.
rounds 3, 8, 12, 17, 20Thin sample. Noted because it happened twice in a row in the closing rounds.
rounds 12, 14, 16, 17Buy behaviour is the most predictable thing an amateur team does and the cheapest thing to punish.
| Habit | Frequency | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Force-buy the round after losing pistol | 75%6 / 8 | Armour plus SMGs. Twice you saved instead, both times after a 3-player pistol loss. |
| Full save at under $2,000 team economy | 92%12 / 13 | Disciplined — you rarely throw a round away on an eco rush. |
| Buy an AWP on the second gun round | 82%9 / 11 | Even when the first gun round was lost. |
| Kept utility on a lost round to carry it forward | 20%3 / 15 | Rarely. You spend everything in the round you are in. |
Roles as observed, not as labelled. Positions are the spots they actually occupied at freeze-end, with the rounds counted.
Your numbers next to the teams you actually played, from the same servers and the same matches. That is the only reason these two columns can sit beside each other: whatever bias exists in the parsing applies to both sides equally and cancels. This is context for your own figures, not a dossier on anyone — no opponent gets a page here, and no league-wide average is used.
| Situation | You | Opponents | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5v4 pre-plant, full buy | 50%7 / 14 | 85%11 / 13 | -35 pts |
| 4v5 pre-plant, full buy | 25%3 / 12 | 27%4 / 15 | -2 pts |
| Post-plant, man advantage | 67%6 / 9 | 80%8 / 10 | -13 pts |
| Pistol rounds | 1 / 4thin | 3 / 4thin | — |
| Opening duel taken | 41%19 / 46 | 59%27 / 46 | -17 pts |
| Rounds won after losing the opener | 30%8 / 27 | 47%9 / 19 | -18 pts |
Everything else in this report is counting. This section is an estimate, so it is labelled, it shows its sample size on every row, and it is not a grade of anybody. Rounds you were winning and lost surface first — those are the coachable ones.
| Round | Situation | What happened | Estimated cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| R14 | 3v1 post-plant | Peeked pit at 0:19 instead of holding the plant | −21 ptsn=47 |
| R9 | 4v2 pre-plant, full buy | Split A and B with no trade set up; both duels lost inside 4 seconds | −18 ptsn=63 |
| R22 | 5v4 pre-plant | Rotated off B with 38 seconds left and gave up the man advantage | −14 ptsn=91 |
| R6 | 2v2 post-plant, water | Dry-peeked heaven with the kit alive | sample too smalln=5 |
Compared against 812 comparable situations from collegiate matches. Cost is the drop in win probability against what teams in the same tier actually did from the same situation — not against a professional benchmark. If a row does not match what you remember of that round, say so; that is the fastest way this gets better.
Send in your league matches and this page rebuilds itself as the season goes on. Free while we are building the collegiate baselines — your demos are what make them exist, and you are the only teams that get measured against them.
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